EDGE FINDER
LIVE DATA
FETCHING MLB SCHEDULE...
MODEL LEGEND✕ CLOSE
Base Model — 100pt Scale
35
STARTING PITCHER
ERA + WHIP of the probable starter. Single most predictive factor. Augmented with xERA and xwOBA from Baseball Savant where available.
20
TEAM OFFENSE (OPS)
On-base Plus Slugging. OPS >.800 = elite. Weighted against opponent starter's WHIP.
20
BULLPEN ERA
Relief pitching ERA. <3.50 = elite. Closer fatigue tracked separately.
+10
HOME FIELD
Flat +10pts. MLB home teams win ~54% historically.
Convergence Score — 9pt Scale
±3
MARKET ODDS
+3 if model agrees with market favorite. −3 if model picks the dog. Market is efficient — divergence is a red flag.
±2
LINE MOVEMENT
Line moving toward edge = sharp confirmation (+2). Moving against = smart money fade (−2).
±2
PYTHAGOREAN EXPECTATION
Bill James RS²/(RS²+RA²). Teams significantly outperforming or underperforming their expected W-L face regression. ±2 per team, ±4 max swing.
±2
STEAM / REVERSE LINE
Steam move (>7¢ in <60min) toward edge = +2. Against = −2. Reverse line movement (public on edge, line shortening) = −1.
±1
RECENT FORM (L15)
Runs per game over last 15 games vs season average. Hot offense = +1, cold = −1.
Confidence Grades
ELT
ELITE — 7-9/9
Multiple signals strongly aligned. Highest conviction. Full unit.
HI
HIGH — 5-6/9
Most signals agree. Standard unit. Watch for late lineup changes.
MED
MEDIUM — 3-4/9
Mixed signals. Half unit or pass.
LOW
LOW — 0-2/9
Signals conflict. Avoid.
✦
PLAYABLE ZONE — CV 3-5 favorite
Market favorite + medium-high CV. Historically the best risk/reward tier.
New Signals
EV
EXPECTED VALUE
+EV = model win% at current odds is mathematically profitable. −EV = price too steep relative to model confidence. Formula: (winPct × payout) − (lossPct × 1).
🔒
LOCK IN
Capture opening odds for CLV tracking. Pick either team — model pick or fade. ↩ FADE tag shown if you lock contrary to model.
CLV
CLOSING LINE VALUE
Did your locked-in price beat the closing line? Positive CLV = you found real edge. The most important long-term metric for a sharp bettor.
PARLAY BUILDER
Run Edge Model first
RUN EDGE MODEL FIRST
SLIP
0 LEGS
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BANKROLL TRACKER
Total Units
0.0
P&L
+0.0
Win Rate
—
Parlays
0
ROI
—
DATELEGSODDSSTAKERESULTP&L
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