EDGE FINDER
LIVE DATA
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MODEL LEGEND
✕ CLOSE
Scoring Model — 100pt Scale
50
FOUR FACTORS (Dean Oliver)
eFG% (25pts), TOV/GM (10pts), OFF REB% (10pts), FT Rate (5pts). The four stats proven to best predict offensive efficiency per possession.
+4
HOME COURT
Flat +4pts to the home team. NBA home teams win ~58% historically.
−10
BACK-TO-BACK PENALTY
Second game of a back-to-back. Fatigue significantly impacts shooting efficiency and defensive effort.
−3
SHORT REST
Only 1 day of rest between games. Mild fatigue penalty — watch minutes leaders.
+2
WELL RESTED
4+ days rest. Teams play sharper — especially beneficial for injured rotation players returning.
−7/−15
INJURY PENALTY
−7pts for 1 starter out, −15pts for 2+ starters out. Cross-referenced against the actual starting lineup.
−15
TWITTER FLAG
Starter posted on social media day-of before tip-off — indicates potential distraction or personal issues.
EPR — Efficiency Rating
EPR measures how efficiently a team scores and prevents scoring per possession. Display-only — used to visually confirm the Four Factors score.
OFF EPR (higher = better offense)
> 0.56 — Elite offense
0.50 – 0.56 — League average
< 0.50 — Below average
NET EPR
> +0.05 — Clear efficiency edge
0 to +0.05 — Marginal edge
< 0 — Efficiency disadvantage
PACE (Possessions/Game)
> 100 — Fast pace (up-tempo)
95 – 100 — League average
< 95 — Slow, grind-it-out
⚡ PACE GAP
When teams differ by 5+ possessions/game, the favored team takes a −2 to −4pt penalty. Mismatches create variance that undermines edge confidence.
Edge Ratings
⬆ STRONG EDGE
Score gap ≥ 15pts. High conviction — confirm with EPR and market direction.
~ MODERATE
Gap 5–14pts. Meaningful lean — confirm with EPR and injury flags.
— WEAK
Gap 2–4pts. Skip unless odds offer significant value.
= PUSH
Gap < 2pts. Coin flip — avoid.
Starting 5 · L10 PPG
Top 5 players from ESPN depth charts. L10 PPG = average points per game over the player's last 10 games — recent form, not season average.
OUTCOMES TRACKER
Model predictions vs actual results
RUN EDGE FINDER FIRST · THEN CLICK LOAD
PROP CORRELATOR
Run Edge Finder first · Correlated props boost parlay EV
WHAT IS A CORRELATED PARLAY?
When you like a team to win, certain player props become more likely to hit too. Stacking the team ML with their star player stats creates a correlated parlay with boosted EV.
When you like a team to win, certain player props become more likely to hit too. Stacking the team ML with their star player stats creates a correlated parlay with boosted EV.
RUN EDGE FINDER FIRST TO SEE CORRELATED PROPS
PARLAY BUILDER
Enter odds manually or pull from Edge Finder
ⓘ Run Edge Finder (TODAY or NEXT 3 DAYS) first — odds auto-populate from DraftKings + FanDuel.
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SLIP
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BANKROLL TRACKER
Total Units
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P&L
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Win Rate
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Parlays
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ROI
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Hit Rate by Edge Tier
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Betting Philosophy
Focus on Strong Edge picks where the model has high conviction and the market agrees. Use Moderate picks only as parlay legs when strong edges are scarce. Avoid Weak picks entirely unless odds offer significant value.
DATE
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P&L
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