EDGE FINDER
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MODEL LEGEND
✕ CLOSE
Scoring Model — 100pt Scale
50
FOUR FACTORS (Dean Oliver)
eFG% (25pts), TOV/GM (10pts), OFF REB% (10pts), FT Rate (5pts). The four stats proven to best predict offensive efficiency per possession.
+4
HOME COURT
Flat +4pts to the home team. NBA home teams win ~58% historically.
−10
BACK-TO-BACK PENALTY
Second game of a back-to-back. Fatigue significantly impacts shooting efficiency and defensive effort.
−3
SHORT REST
Only 1 day of rest between games. Mild fatigue penalty — watch minutes leaders.
+2
WELL RESTED
4+ days rest. Teams play sharper — especially beneficial for injured rotation players returning.
−7/−15
INJURY PENALTY
−7pts for 1 starter out, −15pts for 2+ starters out. Cross-referenced against the actual starting lineup.
−15
TWITTER FLAG
Starter posted on social media day-of before tip-off — indicates potential distraction or personal issues.
EPR — Efficiency Rating
EPR measures how efficiently a team scores and prevents scoring per possession. Display-only — used to visually confirm the Four Factors score.
OFF EPR (higher = better offense)
> 0.56 — Elite offense
0.50 – 0.56 — League average
< 0.50 — Below average
NET EPR
> +0.05 — Clear efficiency edge
0 to +0.05 — Marginal edge
< 0 — Efficiency disadvantage
PACE (Possessions/Game)
> 100 — Fast pace (up-tempo)
95 – 100 — League average
< 95 — Slow, grind-it-out
⚡ PACE GAP
When teams differ by 5+ possessions/game, the favored team takes a −2 to −4pt penalty. Mismatches create variance that undermines edge confidence.
Edge Ratings
⬆ STRONG EDGE
Score gap ≥ 15pts. High conviction — confirm with EPR and market direction.
~ MODERATE
Gap 5–14pts. Meaningful lean — confirm with EPR and injury flags.
— WEAK
Gap 2–4pts. Skip unless odds offer significant value.
= PUSH
Gap < 2pts. Coin flip — avoid.
Starting 5 · L10 PPG
Top 5 players from ESPN depth charts. L10 PPG = average points per game over the player's last 10 games — recent form, not season average.
Convergence Score — 10pt Scale
±3
MARKET ODDS
+3 if model agrees with market favorite. −3 if model picks the dog. Market divergence = red flag.
±2
LINE MOVEMENT
Sharp movement toward edge = +2. Against = −2. Updated on odds refresh.
±2
STEAM / REVERSE LINE
>7¢ rapid movement toward edge = +2. Against = −2. Reverse line (public on edge, line shortening) = −1. Auto-polls every 30 min.
±1
PYTHAGOREAN (Hollinger 13.91)
Expected W-L from pts scored/allowed. 3+ win gap triggers regression signal. Efficient market — ±1 only.
±1
3PT REGRESSION
If 3PT% deviates 8+ pts from prior season (min 20 att), regression flagged. Unsustainable outliers penalized.
±1
TRAVEL FATIGUE
2000+ mile flights penalize road team. Cross-country travel creates measurable fatigue on back-to-backs.
Confidence Grades
ELT
ELITE — 8-10/10
Multiple signals strongly aligned. Full unit. Dog fade suspended for Tier 1 contenders.
HI
HIGH — 6-7/10
Most signals agree. Standard unit.
MED
MEDIUM — 4-5/10
Mixed signals. Half unit or pass.
LOW
LOW — 0-3/10
Signals conflict or dog fade applies. Avoid.
New Signals
EV
EXPECTED VALUE
+EV = model win% profitable at current odds. (winPct × payout) − (lossPct × 1). Green >+5%.
🔒
LOCK IN
Pick either team — model or fade. Captures opening odds for CLV tracking. ↩ FADE shown if contrary to model.
CLV
CLOSING LINE VALUE
Your locked price vs the closing line. Positive CLV = you beat the market. The most important long-term metric.
Contender Tiers
T1
TIER 1 — OKC, BOS, SAS, DET
Elite contenders. Dog fade suspended. ★ ELITE DOG badge shown as underdog.
T2
TIER 2 — Standard contenders
LAL, CLE, DEN, HOU, MIN etc. Normal rules. NYK capped at 6/10 (Brunson-dependent).
PROP CORRELATOR
Run Edge Model first · Correlated props boost parlay EV
WHAT IS A CORRELATED PARLAY?
When you like a team to win, certain player props become more likely to hit too. Stacking the team ML with their star player stats creates a correlated parlay with boosted EV.
When you like a team to win, certain player props become more likely to hit too. Stacking the team ML with their star player stats creates a correlated parlay with boosted EV.
RUN EDGE MODEL FIRST TO SEE CORRELATED PROPS
PARLAY BUILDER
Enter odds manually or pull from Edge Model
ⓘ Run Edge Model (TODAY or NEXT 3 DAYS) first — odds auto-populate from DraftKings + FanDuel.
RUN EDGE MODEL FIRST TO POPULATE GAMES
SLIP
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BANKROLL TRACKER
Total Units
0.0
P&L
+0.0
Win Rate
—
Parlays
0
ROI
—
Hit Rate by Edge Tier
No settled parlays yet
Betting Philosophy
Focus on Strong Edge picks where the model has high conviction and the market agrees. Use Moderate picks only as parlay legs when strong edges are scarce. Avoid Weak picks entirely unless odds offer significant value.
DATE
LEGS
ODDS
STAKE
RESULT
P&L
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