CORSI FOR % (CF%)Shot attempt share at even strength. >52% = puck possession dominance. The #1 predictor in hockey analytics.

xG FOR % (xGF%)Expected goals share — weights shots by danger level. High xG% = generating high-danger chances, not just volume.

PDOShooting% + Save% combined. 100 = neutral. >102 = running hot (regression risk). <98 = running cold (buy signal).

HIGH DANGER CHANCES % (HDC%)Shots from the slot and crease area. Best predictor of future goals.

SAVE % (SV%) + L10 SV%Season SV% plus last 10 starts SV%. 🔥 Hot = 10+ pts above season avg. 🧊 Cold = 10+ pts below. Color = absolute quality (>.915 green, <.905 red).

SPECIAL TEAMSPP% + PK% combined. Accounts for ~20-25% of goals. PP% >25% and PK% >82% = structural edge.

PYTHAGOREAN EXPECTATIONExpected W-L from goals for/against. Exponent 2.15 (hockey standard). Teams outperforming by 3+ wins face regression. ±2 CV swing.

CONVERGENCE SCORE — 10pt scale7-10 = ELITE · 5-6 = HIGH · 3-4 = MEDIUM · 0-2 = LOW. Signals: market odds (±3), line movement (±2), Pythagorean (±2), steam/RLM (±2), goalie comparison (±1), special teams (±1), PDO fade (±1).

EXPECTED VALUE (EV)+EV = model win% profitable at current price. Formula: (winPct × payout) − (lossPct × 1). Green >+5%, gold 0-5%, red negative.

STEAM / REVERSE LINE>7¢ rapid movement toward edge = +2 CV (sharp confirming). Against = −2 CV. Reverse line movement (public on edge, line shortening) = −1 CV.

LOCK IN (🔒)Captures opening odds for CLV tracking. Pick either team — model or fade. ↩ FADE shown if contrary to model. CLV = your price minus closing line.

EDGE TIERSSTRONG ≥15pt gap · MODERATE 8-14pt · WEAK 3-7pt · PUSH <3pt. ✦ PLAYABLE = CV 4-6 with market favorite.

PUBLIC BETTING (Action Network)🐟 CONTRARIAN (+1 CV): edge team <40% of tickets. 💰 SHARP MONEY (+2 CV): money% exceeds bets% by 15+ pts. 📢 PUBLIC DARLING (−1 CV): edge team >70% of tickets. ⚠ OPP SHARP (−1 CV): sharp money on opponent.

PDO CONVERGENCE — TieredEdge cold (<98): +1 CV. Severely cold (<96): +2 CV. Edge hot (>102): −1 CV. Severely hot (>104): −2 CV. Opponent PDO flipped — opponent hot confirms edge (+1/+2), opponent cold hurts edge (−1/−2).

SITUATIONAL SPOTS✈️ ROAD TRIP (3rd+ consecutive road game): −1/−2 CV. ⛰️ ALTITUDE (visiting Denver): −1 CV. 🕐 BODY CLOCK (east team in Pacific): −1 CV. 👀 LOOKAHEAD: −1 CV. 🔥 REVENGE (lost by 3+ goals): +1 CV. 💤 WELL RESTED (3+ days): +1 CV.